We get Miami OH on a key number and Central Michigan far enough away from 10 if you feel the need to buy down an extra 1/2 point for -8 and +10.5 to avoid the push so be it, but I believe you will be fine.
Why Central Michigan?
Well first things first, I believe in this team and they had a tough non-conference schedule with all three games coming on the road against Boston College, Arizona, and Michigan State not one of those teams is anything to roll your eyes about all three of those teams are bowl worthy in their respective conferences, ACC, Pac-10, and Big 10. Ball State the MAC darlings a year ago lost much of their talent and have not been able to compete. Their non-conference opponents consist of New Hampshire, Army and Auburn. ust don't see how Ball State can play defense and score enough points in this one to make it a game. I didn't like the 14.5 points Vegas was giving us however as they have played better behind Sr. Tanner Justice who replaced redshirt Freshmen Kelly page. Even then then Justice and the passing game has passed for an average of 59.7 yards per game. This allows Central Michigan to concentrate on Miquale Lewis who is having another strong year, but when Central Mich gets up early as I expect them to it will turn the passing game where it may just be asking to get in trouble. Central Michigan fresh off a 5 turnover game and that was against a solid QB in Zach Maynard. Buffalo is last in the MAC in turnover margin and I don't expect them to win that here tonight either. Look for another huge game from Dan LeFevour on national TV. He has more to prove and wants to win the MAC. Central Mich have won all three of their road games in the MAC all to better teams in Bowling Green, Western Mich, and Buffalo.
Why Miami OH?
Arguably the toughest schedule in the MAC they have faced non-conference teams Kentucky, Boise State, and Cincinnati. Buffalo played Pitt and Gardner Webb. Miami OH has faced a much tougher road with average opponents in the 50's combined for both total offense and total defense. Much lower than Buffalo which has faced an average 63rd ranked defense and an average 71st ranked offense. That's not even counting Gardner Webb who we can't possibly rank considering they are not Div 1A team.
The story here is Miami's Zac Dysert who will look to bounce back from last weeks disaster. He is a shining star in the MAC and could take over next year as the best QB when LeFevour leaves for the NFL. In just 8 starts he ranks third among the conference QBs with 2,417 yards passing. While they lost a tough game to Bowling Green last week it was mostly because of the turnovers as this team got off to a 14-0 lead once it came unraveled it really came unraveled. Look for the Red Hawks to bounce back against a Buffalo team that is licking it's wounds. Buffalo just can't win the close games. Zach Maynard is one of the better QBs in the conference Miami OH 33rd ranked pass defense will be up to the task at hand. I don't know if Buffalo's secondary can stop Dysert who got picked apart late and did not look good against Ohio a team that is more known for its running. A tough loss at home for Buffalo now has to go on the road to Miami OH. If they win here they won't be winning by more than 10 that's for sure.
